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Toshiba still battling Blu-ray? - June 4, 2008

The DVD Copy Control Assn., which administers the CSS license governing the design of DVD players, is holding its regularly scheduled meetings in Los Angeles starting today amid a new swirl of rumors about a super up-converting DVD player from Toshiba. The latest round of speculation was triggered by Japanese press reports, which sited "sources," claiming that Toshiba will release the new players before the end of the year. That led to a spate of speculative reports on various Web sites.

Media Wonk has thus far been unable to confirm the reports, but the latest rumors are not much different from those touched off in March by Toshiba CEO Atsutoshi Nishida in an interview with the Wall Street Journal following Toshiba's decision to abandon the HD DVD format:

"What people don't realize is that Hollywood studios are going to release new titles not just for Blu-ray but for standard DVDs as well," [Nishida-san said]. "If you watch standard DVDs on our players, the images are of very high quality because they include an upconverting feature. And we're going to improve this even more, so that consumers won't be able to tell the difference from HD DVD images...Next-generation DVD players are in a much weaker position than when standard DVD players were first introduced."

Then came this tasty nugget from April, suggesting a 3-D version of DVD might be in the works.

According to the latest reports:

Toshiba's new technology has been made possible by developing a large integrated circuit that can instantly convert images produced in the current format into high-resolution images. This technology makes it possible to reproduce high-quality images comparable to Blu-ray video from current standard DVDs.

Pricing was not mentioned in the reports, except to indicate that the new players would be priced far-less than Blu-ray Disc players.

Also unclear from the reports is whether Toshiba intends to keep the super up-converting technology--assuming it exists--to itself or will license it to other manufacturers (Chinese food, anyone?).

The DVD-CCA, meanwhile, continues to plug away at the problem of "managed-copy" for DVDs--a proposal to amend the CSS license to allow consumers to copy their encrypted DVDs to a hard drive for streaming over a home network or transferring the movie to a portable device.

Of course, DVD-CCA has been plugging away at managed-copy for nearly two years now with little to show for it except threats of litigation. Still, after all but abandoning the idea to the IT companies, Toshiba suddenly raised the idea again in March and recently circulated a plan for implementing managed-copy on CE devices, according to Media Wonk's own sources.

If managed-copy were to happen for DVD--a very big "if"--it would put the format on the same footing as Blu-ray, which is still expected to feature managed-copy if and when a final AACS license is approved (another big "if").

Connect all the dots and it's not too hard to make out Toshiba's general plan to try to redeem the HD DVD debacle: a low-priced super up-converting player based on standard DVD with the potential to eventually incorporate some or all of the interactive bells-and-whistles that are supposed to help Blu-ray differentiate itself from the older format.

As an added twist, Toshiba's two-pronged approach to a new and improved DVD format, should it be successful, would create an interesting dilemma for the studios. On the one hand, they're the ones who have been pushing managed-copy lately, in hopes of sprucing up the format enough to hold onto some shelf space at retail while they wait for consumers to catch up with Blu-ray technology. On the other hand, they can't be thrilled with Toshiba's plans to undercut Blu-ray's picture-quality advantage.

The studios get very little out of the bargain if the market goes to upconverting standard DVDs rather than Blu-ray. With up-converters, once consumers buy the players they have no incentive to replace their current DVD libraries with new, high-definition discs. And if the up-converting effect is good enough, they have little incentive to pay a premium for new releases on Blu-ray.

Stay tuned.
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