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From Y2K to DTV - February 28, 2008

Standing behind a podium equipped with a countdown clock to next February's cut-off of analog broadcasting in the U.S, Consumer Electronics Assn. president/CEO Gary Shapiro predicted Thursday that the long-debated final transition to digital television would be remembered like the much-feared but ultimately uneventful Y2K bug. "It's the same thing," he said. "A lot of preparation, a lot of dire predictions but ultimately a lot of unnecessary anxiety."

Speaking to a luncheon crowd of telecom lobbyists and FCC staffers hosted by the Media Institute, Shapiro tried to put the analog cut-off in perspective. "If a handful of Americans lose their TV service for a few days or a few hours, the Republic will survive," he said. "Last year, 2.2 million people lost their homes to foreclosure. I'd call that a much bigger problem than losing your TV signal. It's important to keep this in perspective."

The reason some people might lose their signal next year is that broadcasters, by law, must stop using their current analog frequencies as of Feb. 17, 2009. For the 86% of U.S. homes that get their TV service via cable or satellite, or the 85 million with digital TV sets, the analog cut-off is no big deal. Their existing set-top boxes will handle the necessary conversion. For the small slice of homes that still get their TV only over-the-air there are government subsidized converter boxes for sale at electronics stores and other outlets.

Although the industry is currently running educational ads on TV to alert people to the change, it's inevitable that some rabbit-ear households won't get the message and will see their TVs go dark on the big day. While some are predicting mass hysteria and street riots by aggrieved over-the-air heads, Shapiro appealed for calm.

"We're talking about briefly losing your TV signal," he said. "The world is not going to shut down, the nuclear missiles are not going to go off because a few people lose their TV service for a few hours."

Shapiro's organization, of course, has lobbied harder than anyone else for a firm digital deadline because it helped spark a huge surge in sales of digital TV sets for CEA member companies--about the only product category any of them are making any more from these days. Still, if you've spent any time following telecom issues in Washington, and have heard some of the hysterical forecasts of doom and civic unrest that have characterized the DTV transition debate, it was refreshing to hear anyone try to inject some sanity into the discussion.


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