Media Wonk




User Profile

Paul Sweeting

Paul Sweeting is the editor of ContentAgenda.com and a columnist for Video Business. He has covered the home entertainment industries since 1985 for Billboard, Variety, Publishers Weekly and other leading business publications. He is based in Washington, DC.


User Stats

  • Recent Posts: 9
  • Avg Posts Per Week: 4
  • Posts Written: 453

RSS Feed

  • Add this blog to your RSS newsreader!

Recent Comments

Most Commented On

Archives

By Hot Topic

Blog
Paul Sweeting

Paul Sweeting, Media Wonk
ContentAgenda

Link This | Email this | Comments (5)


Waiting on Toshiba - January 8, 2008

LAS VEGAS—For Universal Studios and Paramount Pictures, the waiting has begun: waiting to see what Toshiba does in the wake of Warner Bros.’ defection to the Blu-ray camp; waiting to see what happens with HD DVD hardware sales; waiting to see if consumers notice.

Here at CES, Toshiba continued to make brave noises about soldiering on. But for the studios in the HD DVD camp, it’s time to make serious contingency plans.

“There’s still a chance,” one HD DVD studio exec told Media Wonk. “But it’s a pretty slim chance.”
Should Toshiba decide to fold its tent, of course, the decision is made for them. They have to go Blu-ray. Even if Toshiba doesn’t fold its tent but hardware sales go flat, Universal and Paramount will need to go with the side that’s growing. That’s business.

But they shouldn’t expect any break on the royalties from Sony. That ship sailed with the Warner tide.
HD DVD backers at CES expressed deep frustration over Warner’s move, not only because it could mean their side looses but because they still have grave doubts about Blu-ray.

“None of the facts have changed,” one studio exec said. “The problems that existed [with Blu-ray] in December still exist. They didn’t go away because Warner changed sides.”

Among those, in the exec’s view, are disc manufacturing constraints, high costs and high consumer prices.
“I think the days of falling prices are over,” another studio exec said. “The hardware is going to be $300, and discs are going to be $27. We’ll see if the consumer buys it.”

They also don’t buy Warner’s stated reason for its move: a purported clear consumer preference for Blu-ray evident in sales data and consumer research from the fourth quarter.

“What consumers?” one HD DVD exec asked, sarcastically. “The numbers aren’t there to show a preference.”

One non-studio HD DVD backer offered a bet that, come Dec. 31, 2008, the numbers still won’t be there for Blu-ray, even if Toshiba were to fold tomorrow.

Media Wonk didn’t take the bet, but it’s still on the table.
[Consumer Trends]  [Deals & Dealmakers]  [Discs]  [Platforms & Formats]   LEAVE A COMMENT
POST A COMMENT
Display Name or Registered Bloggers Login Here.

Before submitting this form, please type the characters displayed above:


Robert Smith
January 8, 2008
Response to:
Waiting on Toshiba

1. HARDWARE COSTS: Competition and mass production will push these down very quickly. Already Funai and Phillips have lowered the price, we will see a lot more of this. 2. DiSK REPLICATION CONSTRAINTS AND COSTS: We have heard this for a long time and it has been proven to not be true. Microsoft in particular argued that BD50 Blu-ray disks could not be manufactured at all; now they are the standard. For the consumer, the HD DVD/DVD combo disks have been a reliability nightmare, while Blu-ray disks have worked. The industry needs to get a single format and move on with it. Consumers have held back. I personally didn't care very much which one won and considered both acceptable (long-term preference for Blu-ray but slight). HD DVD backers move along so we can get those sales numbers up again instead of continuing to find more issues with the winning format.




hd man
January 9, 2008
Response to:
Waiting on Toshiba

With blu-rays prices and lack of special feature fucntions (ones that all HD-DVD players already do)adoption is going to be sluggish. It's not an unreasonable consumer expectation that the play they own will do all the features advertised on the box of a disk.




Founding Father
January 9, 2008
Response to:
Waiting on Toshiba

And the winner is... iTunes and Digital Downloads. The days of packaged goods are numbered for the studios... we all know that. Both Blu-ray and HD DVD are just bridge technologies and oh by the way... consumers know that and that's why they're not now and probably won't soon buy them. Besides, standard DVDs still look GREAT on my HD TV.




BLU
January 10, 2008
Response to:
Waiting on Toshiba

2 to 1 sales of discs... 6 to 1 sales of players.... WHAT NUMBERS DO YOU NEED??? 100 to 1??




blu
January 10, 2008
Response to:
Waiting on Toshiba

Blu outsells HD-DUD every week for the entire freaking year.. but the numbers just aren't there... LOL